Analysis Weather to Instability Price of Large Red Chili Using Time Series Based Prediction: The Perspective of Price Fairness in Islamic Economics

HAFIDULLAH, MOCHAMAD LUTFAN (2026) Analysis Weather to Instability Price of Large Red Chili Using Time Series Based Prediction: The Perspective of Price Fairness in Islamic Economics. JIPSI: Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan dan Sains Islam Interdisipiner, 5 (3). pp. 690-700. ISSN 2962-9187

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Abstract

This study was conducted to examine the influence of weather conditions on large red chili production and farmer-level price instability in Paiton District, considering that fluctuations in rainfall, temperature, and seasonal patterns often affect production and reduce farmers’ income. A quantitative approach was employed using primary data collected through questionnaires from 70 large red chili farmers and secondary data on historical weather and price records. The data were analyzed using validity and reliability tests, simple linear regression, and time series analysis to determine the relationship between weather conditions and price instability. The results reveal that weather conditions have a significant effect on price instability (p = 0.000), with a coefficient of determination of 52.5%, indicating that variations in weather contribute substantially to production changes and subsequent price fluctuations. By integrating weather-related variables with a time-series analytical approach, this study provides empirical evidence that enriches agricultural econometric research while offering practical implications for farmers in planning planting schedules, supporting policymakers in designing weather-based price stabilization strategies, and encouraging the development of early warning systems and weather-based price forecasting models.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Weather Conditions, Price Instability, Large Red Chili, Farmers, Time series, Price Volatility
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Divisions:	Fakultas Agama Islam > S1 Ekonomi Syari'ah
Depositing User:	Unnamed user with email mlutfanhafid@gmail.com
Date Deposited:	18 Aug 2026 04:07
Last Modified:	18 Aug 2026 04:07
URI:	https://repository.unuja.ac.id/id/eprint/4250

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